Statistical evaluation of vulnerability and expected seismic damage of residential buildings in the Veneto-Friuli area (NE Italy)

The European macroseismic scale EMS98, through the classification of buildings in vulnerability classes with a progressively decreasing level of seismic risk (from A to F) gives a coherent conceptual frame for a large scale evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of buildings. The theory of the random sets is used to derive the upper and lower bounds of relative frequencies of the damage grades for every class and macroseismic intensity from the qualitative measures of the scale. Preliminary classifications of the number of buildings and their volumes in every census section based on “poor” data obtained from national statistics, are verified through a first-level survey form in a sample of census sections in the provinces of Belluno, Treviso and Pordenone (NE Italy). The comparison allows us to make some proposals of corrective coefficients, based on simple linear or better robust regression.