Where the next strong earthquake in the Italian peninsula? Insights by a deterministic approach

An attempt is made at gaining insights into the possible location of the next strong earthquake (M > 5.5) in the Italian peninsula, by considering the regularity patterns of seismic activity so far recognized in the peri-Adriatic zones (since 1400 A.D.) and their possible connection with the ongoing tectonic setting. This analysis suggests that at present the probability of major shocks is highest in the northern Apennines, and lowest in Calabria and southern Apennines, while an intermediate probability is tentatively assigned to the central Apennines and eastern Southern Alps. Some considerations on the possible seismotectonic consequences of the large westward motion of the Anatolian system after the post-1939 seismic activation of the North Anatolian fault system suggest that the boundary zones of the Sicily wedge (with particular regard to the Vulcano-Syracuse fault system) may as well be prone to large shocks. The identification of the above priority zones may help to better manage the initiatives for seismic risk mitigation in the Italian area. At present, the proposed approach cannot provide significant information on the relative probability of major shocks in the Italian zones not cited in this study.