Historical analysis of ocean climate hazard indicators and sea level projection in the Karawang region, Indonesia

Karawang, located on the northern coast of Java, Indonesia, is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as rising sea levels, increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and shifting weather patterns. As a key industrial and agricultural region, these environmental changes threaten both the local economy and coastal communities, especially those relying on marine resources. This study analyses high-resolution oceanographic data from 1994 to 2024, including SST, salinity, sea surface height (SSH), and wave direction, to examine trends and future projections. Results show clear seasonal patterns in SST and SSH, with peaks during April–May and November, influenced by monsoon cycles. Sea levels show a gradual rise, with projections indicating an increase of up to 0.895 m by 2059 using the Forecast.ETS method. Salinity also follows a seasonal pattern, peaking in October, while wave direction varies with monsoonal shifts. These findings highlight the importance of the continuous monitoring of marine variables to better understand climate change impacts. The study emphasises the need for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to help coastal areas like Karawang respond to climate-related challenges and strengthen overall climate resilience. This comprehensive analysis not only identifies significant trends in ocean climate indicators but also provides critical insights into their potential socio-economic ramifications, particularly for vulnerable coastal communities. These findings underscore the urgency for targeted climate interventions. Furthermore, the study offers novel sea level projections that can inform policy and guide the development of adaptive strategies, ensuring long-term sustainability of the Karawang marine ecosystems and resources in the face of escalating climate threats.