First studies of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna (southern Italy) by means of macroseismic intensities

Results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), in terms of macroseismic intensity applied to the Mt. Etna region, are presented. PSHA has been performed using a numerical procedure based on the extensive use of local macroseismic information, as an alternative to the usual Cornell-McGuire methods. The large amount of intensity data available for this area - coming from the Italian intensity database DBMI04 for the regional earthquakes, and from the Etna catalogue for the ‘local‘ events - has provided fairly exhaustive seismic site histories (i.e. the data set of macroseismic observations available for a given locality) to estimate the seismic hazard for 402 localities on the volcano. In order to improve the completeness of the site catalogue when historical information is missing, observed intensity data have been integrated with values calculated from epicentral information obtained by using an attenuation law specific for the Etna region. Using a probability distribution considering the completeness of the input database and the uncertainty of intensity data, the hazard in terms of maximum intensity (I_exp) characterised by a 10% probability of exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years, has been computed. The highest values ( I_exp = IX or X) are found in the south-eastern flank of Mt. Etna while the rest of the volcano is exposed to a lower hazard (I_exp = VIII). Despite the low energy (M≤4.8) compared with that of the large regional earthquakes affecting the area (6.6≤M≤7.4), the local events strongly influence the pattern of the hazard in the eastern sector of Mt. Etna, representing a significant, and sole, source of hazard when a shorter exposure time (e.g. 30 years) is considered.