Abstract:
The most widely accepted procedure for maximum magnitude estimation is the extreme value theory. The method is however subjected to great uncertainties associated with earthquake data incompleteness. The combination of large historical events with complete instrumental data is a tool to overcome this limitation. This procedure is applied here for the maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake magnitude and activity rates in the main seismogenic sources in north-western Turkey. Highest probabilities are found to correlate with the western section of the North Anatolian Fault in Marmara Sea, and the North Aegean Sea.