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Coastal modifications of the Caspian Sea and other central Asian lakes as natural models for coastal responses to the global sea-level rise

A. O. Selivanov

Abstract: 

The problem of coastal response to recent and anticipated global greenhouse-induced sea-level rise attracts great attention from scholars, decision-makers, and the lay public. Re-modelling and destruction of coastal depositional bodies and erosional scarps will cause the heaviest losses amongst a variety of sea-level rise consequences. The Caspian Sea, Aral Sea, Issyk Kul Lake, and some other giant lakes in Central Asia are extremely sensitive to changes in climate humidity, river runoff, and human activity, and present an exceptional opportunity to observe directly the impact of water-level changes. Coastal morphology, nearshore bottom slope, and the profiles of depositional coastal bodies or erosional scarps, as well as rate and amplitude of water-level changes, appear to be the most important factors in coastal response rates and patterns. Strict analytical prediction of coastal response to a possible future accelerated sea-level rise is yet to be achieved. Various modifications of the Zenkovich-Bruun Rule can be used only as a first approximation in these studies. A comprehensive methodology based on field data and simple quantitative approaches made it possible to present a general overview of future coastal evolution in the former USSR.